Election Forecast Model Has Kamala Harris Winning Every Swing State

Vice President Kamala Harris is projected to win in every swing state, according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest presidential election forecast.
The forecast’s predictions show that Harris will win by a margin of between 0.4 points and 3.3 points in the seven states. It previously showed that former President Donald Trump would win in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.
Harris’ biggest lead is in Wisconsin, where she is predicted to win by a margin of 3.3 points. The forecast shows that she has a 66 percent chance of winning the state to Trump’s 34 percent, having widened the gap since August 30, when she had a 58 percent chance of winning in the state to Trump’s 42 percent.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Harris is 2.8 points ahead in Wisconsin, with 48.8 percent to Trump’s 45.9 percent.
Harris is also predicted to win by 2.5 points in Michigan, where she is leading Trump by 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. The forecast shows that she has a 62 percent chance of winning in the state, compared to Trump’s 38 percent chance.
In Nevada and Pennsylvania, Harris is projected to win by a smaller margin of 1.7 and 1.3 point, respectively, with a 57 percent to 58 percent chance of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight. In all four states, Harris has been leading Trump in the forecast for a number of weeks.
Her lead is smaller in the three states where Trump was previously predicted to win and is still leading in the polling averages. In Georgia, Harris is predicted to win by a 0.7-point margin, having overtaken Trump on September 13, three days after the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump.
Both candidates claimed victory after the debate, but CNN’s flash poll revealed 63 percent of viewers thought Harris won to 37 percent who said the same about Trump. A week later, polling still shows that Harris won the debate, and that Harris is ahead of Trump nationally.
In Arizona, the forecast model shows a similar pattern, with Harris having overtaken Trump on September 15. She is now projected to win by a 0.5-point margin, with a 52 percent chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 48 percent chance.
Harris’ lead is smallest in North Carolina, where she is currently predicted to win by a 0.3-point margin, also with a 52 percent chance of winning, having overtaken Trump on September 15.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average currently shows that Trump is 0.2 points ahead in the state at 47.4 percent to Harris’ 47.2 percent.
Individual polls have shown differing results across the swing states recently, with some showing Trump ahead and others showing Harris ahead. All have shown the two candidates leading by very thin margins.
Nationally, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows that Harris is predicted to win in November with 293 electoral votes to Trump’s 245, with a 61 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to Trump’s 38 percent. That is up from 279 votes to Trump’s 259 votes on September 11, the day after the debate.
She is also leading by 2.9 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
In 2016, when Hillary Clinton was facing Trump, FiveThirtyEight’s model gave Clinton a 71 percent chance of victory to Trump’s 28 percent. Clinton ultimately won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College.
In 2020, FiveThirtyEight’s model gave Joe Biden an 89 percent chance of winning to Trump’s 10 percent, with 348 electoral votes to Trump’s 190. Biden won with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232.
But while polls have historically underestimated Trump’s levels of support, experts believe that the polls will not be as inaccurate this year because they have gotten better at capturing likely Trump supporters who were undercounted in the past. Thus, Harris’ lead in the polls could accurately reflect voters across the country.
“Many pollsters today are using past vote [history] to correct for the Trump undercount,” Cliff Young, the president of Ipsos polling, previously told Newsweek.